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Real Estate Meltdown: Winners and Losers - 2006-09-16
In recent weeks, we have seen a dramatic increase in reports on the impending collapse of the residential real estate market. The constant drumbeat of a national meltdown in real estate prices has all but the most zealous real estate owners quaking in their boots, fearing that the value of their homes may, indeed, drop to zero.

The truth, of course, is that the news media is always looking for a good story, and this week, the story seems to be real estate. There is no doubt that the sales market is cooling nationally, and we are seeing longer listing times and a softening of prices in general.

The big recent story was that home sales in July dipped over 4 percent from the same period a year ago. While the report did not list local statistics, it did break out sales by region, and the South fared best of any area, with a decline of only 1.2 percent, hardly an economic disaster.

Inventories of both new and resale homes are rising, even in the Atlanta metro area, and sellers are now having to consider making concessions in order to get their homes sold. But believe it or not, homes are selling.

Here are some thoughts on the so-called real estate bubble, and how it might affect different people for good or ill:

* If you just bought your home in the past couple of years, and then you took out a home equity line of credit on top of the first mortgage, you may be looking at a "no equity" position. In other words, your house may not have gone up enough in value to cover all that you owe.

How, one might ask, could this happen? Well, sometimes appraisers are pressured by lenders to be especially optimistic on an estimate of value, and the truth is that values fluctuate, up and down, day to day. In addition, some lenders actually (and intentionally) lend more than the total value of the home which acts as collateral for the loan.

* If you are in a big hurry to sell, you may need to take painful steps to make your house sell faster than it might otherwise in this market. For example, you could spend the money needed to make the house look great, or you might lower the price to make it more attractive financially, or you might offer a higher commission to the selling agent in an effort to get more showings, or even consider all three.

* If you took out one of those exotic mortgages in the recent past which allows you to make "interest only" payments, you may be seeing your home's value remain steady or even decline in some areas, while the mortgage balance in fact stays exactly the same. Even worse, some buyers in recent years were lured into "negative amortization" loan programs in which the loan balance can actually climb as time goes by.

The good news is this: even though selling times and inventories are increased, the Atlanta area continues to report positive job growth, and that is the ultimate driver of home values in any area.

The moderate appreciation we have experienced in recent years has allowed us to remain a relative bargain in the national housing market. Recent figures show that the median home price nationally is now at about $227,500, while a median priced existing home in the Atlanta area goes for a much more affordable $173,900.

Two related issues bear scrutiny as we all watch the slowdown this fall:

* I expect there will be a washout of real estate agents in the next year. There are simply way too many agents chasing way too few listings to support everyone who has entered the real estate business in recent years.

To make matters worse, it seems that more sellers than ever are trying to sell their homes without professional help. Whether that is because they are locked into "no equity" situations which preclude their payment of a commission or whether they simply want to try to save the commission, it doesn't matter. Whatever the reason, there are not enough listings and not enough buyers to go around.

* It appears to me that the seven percent commission is dead.

Long the envy of the national real estate community, the major brokers of the Atlanta residential real estate market were somehow able to enforce a minimum listing fee of seven percent of the purchase price. This is while the rest of America paid an average of six percent.

But in recent years, that fee has been eroded. Now many of the traditional brokerage companies, even those dubbed "full service," are allowing their agents to do whatever it takes to get the listing, and that often means coming in at well under the standard seven percent.

I know that the Georgia Real Estate Commission and the Realtors will tell you that there's no such thing as a "standard" commission, but now it's really beginning to be true.

In addition, a number of firms are beginning to "unbundle" the traditional package of real estate services, allowing the seller to pick which services he may wish to buy. For example, many firms will now allow a seller to pay a flat fee and "list" the house in the multiple listing service and put a sign in the front yard. The seller may be in charge of all showings, and the agent comes in only to "write up" the contract.

Finally, sales commissions are now feeling the pain of the information age. Witness the proliferation of websites such as craigslist.com, which allow buyers and sellers to share extensive information directly with each other at no cost whatsoever.

Agents, welcome to the twenty-first century.

 
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